NBA Picks & Expert Basketball Predictions

The complete 180-degree transformation that Randle has done on his overall perception this postseason has been something to behold. The concerns that the numbers he produced through the first two rounds (23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on 50.9-percent shooting) weren't sustainable against the No. 1-ranked defense of the Thunder were quickly squashed in Game 1 when Randle led Minnesota with 28 points and eight rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting with five triples. Only eight of those 28 points came in the second half of an eventual 114-88 loss, though. 

Since Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round, Randle has scored 21 or more points in nine of his 11 playoff appearances including each of his last five. He's also dropped 28 or more points in each of his last three outings, as well, while producing the fourth-most points of any player still active in the conference finals at 24.3 per game. The Thunder will make it more of a priority to shut him down from start to finish in Game 2, but the Lakers and Golden State Warriors likely thought they could do the same and ultimately failed to execute. 

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As was the case with fellow second-unit players Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo, backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker ended up seeing the floor for more minutes (28) than starters Jaden McDaniels (24), Mike Conley (23), and Rudy Gobert (21). Some of that can be attributed to the fact that the Timberwolves were getting blown out in the second half and only mustered up 40 points, but if the team continues to struggle offensively like that moving forward, if you're looking for a bold take, I could see NAW being inserted into the starting lineup in favor of Conley at some point in this series. 

NAW attempted 11 shots, including nine from 3-point range, to finish with eight points, two rebounds, and a pair of blocked shots coming off the bench. He's now gone OVER a prop of 6.5 points in every other game dating back to series finale at Crypto.com Arena with the Lakers, so if that were to continue, the 26-year-old would in store for an UNDER on Thursday. Then again, those aforementioned 11 shots were his second-most of the playoffs, and that kind of output with stronger efficiency would help notch a rare consecutive OVER in this market.

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Oklahoma City played 13 different players in Game 1, with some only playing a handful of minutes late in garbage time as a result of the gargantuan difference on the scoreboard, but it was sorely needed with the team having just played two days earlier in a Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets. Three starters (Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, and Isaiah Hartenstein) played less than 30 minutes as well, with Hartenstein playing the fewest at 20. The 7-footer still made the most of his on-court time, shooting 6-of-8 from the field for 12 points while grabbing five rebounds. 

Tuesday marked the third time in four games that Hartenstein has recorded an OVER on 15.5 combined points and rebounds, and the fourth time in his last five games when taking on the Timberwolves. The 20 minutes are a tad worrisome, especially coming off the 19 minutes he saw on Sunday versus Denver. With Gobert being a complete afterthought for Minnesota, Hartenstein's size around the basket wasn't necessary to combat the Stifle Tower, so the Thunder were afforded the opportunity to go smaller. 

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I mean, there's no explanation required here if you've been following my player props throughout the Thunder's run. Taking the OVER on 1.5 made 3-pointers for Alex Caruso has been a consistent and reliable wager which once again provided value in Game 1 when he shot a perfect 3-of-3 from distance over 22 minutes off the pine. He's now connected on multiple 3-pointers in five of his last six and six of his last eight games, and oddsmakers have yet to bump this number up to 2.5 to coincide with Caruso's hot shooting. Over these eight games, the 31-year-old veteran is burying his threes at a 47.4-percent clip. 

There's only so many unique ways I can encourage bettors to put their money on Caruso's OVERs. If this keeps presenting at sportsbooks with plus-money value, it should continue to churn out units for those with the willingness to jump on the bandwagon. 

For more on this player prop and others, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here.