Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been blown out by an average of 20.5 points through two games of the 2025 NBA Western Conference finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, making a victory in Game 3 an absolute necessity to keep this series competitive. Sportsbook has a Timberwolves-Thunder same-game parlay at +550 value ready for Saturday's all-important matchup.


 

As uncompetitive as the first two meetings have been, the cure to what ails Minnesota could be returning home for the first time in this best-of-seven, being 4-1 this postseason at the Target Center while two of Oklahoma City's three total losses have come on the road. Knowing this is a do-or-die moment for the team should inspire a victory to avoid an insurmountable 3-0 deficit.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker just dropped 17 points coming off the bench on the road in Game 2, and has now scored eight or more in each game including each of his last seven meetings with the Thunder dating back to Jan. 29 of last year.

Chet Holmgren managed to grab 11 or more rebounds in five of the seven games against the Denver Nuggets in the second round, but has failed to finish with more than seven versus the Timberwolves. There are seven teams in which the 7-foot-1 big man is averaging seven or fewer boards against for his career, and Minnesota is one of them (6.7).

It's not quite the love affair of consistently wagering on the OVER for Alex Caruso 3-pointers made props (which we're avoiding here today), but the combination of rebounds and assists for Williams has paid dividends both literally and figuratively with a reliable hit rate over this recent stretch. The 24-year-old wing is averaging 5.9 boards and 5.6 dimes through 13 postseason games thus far, which is up from the 5.3 and 5.1 he put up during the regular season, respectively.

Most importantly, though, is that Williams has gone OVER a number of 11.5 in each of the last five games dating back to Game 5 against the Denver Nuggets in the second round after failing to do so even once in the eight playoff outings prior. He's had at least eight rebounds in each of the first two games versus Minnesota and ended with exactly five assists each time, as well. 

For more on this player prop and others, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here. 

There were five occasions in the seven-game series with Denver that all 7-foot-1 of Chet Holmgren grabbed 11 or more rebounds in a game. That's not to suggest he couldn't possibly replicate those numbers against the Timberwolves, but through two home games, Holmgren hasn't finished with more than seven and just recorded four across 31 minutes in Oklahoma City's 118-103 victory on Wednesday. That means he's totalled as many boards in his last two appearances combined as he did in the finale against the Nuggets on May 18.

This shouldn't come as a surprise, though, because dating back to November 28, 2023, Holmgren has gone UNDER Saturday's prop of 8.5 rebounds seven of the last eight times he's competed against Minnesota. There are only seven teams in which he's averaging fewer than seven boards against for his career and the Timberwolves are one of them (6.7). Oddsmakers have both the OVER and UNDER here with identical value at the time of writing, and there's much more rationale for leaning towards the UNDER in Game 3 on the road.

For more on this player prop and others, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here. 

The one prop of mine which connected in Game 2 was thankfully the one I was most confident in, which was backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker going OVER 6.5 points at +105. He blew that number out of the water with 17 points with three triples coming off the bench in 25 minutes for his second-highest scoring output of the playoffs behind his 20-point outburst in Game 2 against the Golden State Warriors. 

Despite Mike Conley being a steady presence in the starting lineup and knowing how Minnesota is producing a staggering 51.2 more points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, there may come a time sooner rather than later where head coach Chris Finch needs to make a change to his starting lineup and replace the veteran with Alexander-Walker, which is one of the few logical adjustments to be made. The Thunder own what's easily the best defense of any team left standing, which also rang true before the playoffs even got underway, but the Timberwolves are only averaging 95.5 points through two games and need a jolt in some form to fight back. Enter NAW, who should easily topple 7.5 points whether that change is made or not.

For more on this player prop and others, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here. 

Of the eight players on Minnesota who've suited up for each of the first two games, only Jaden McDaniels is shooting better than 50 percent from the field (55 percent). He's also one of just two players (Julius Randle) with a 3-point efficiency greater than 40 percent (45.5), and his 29 total points rank third on the roster. 

McDaniels is putting up 17.6 points in five postseason home appearances already compared to 13.7 in seven road outings. Role players tend to perform better in front of a home crowd anyway, so his improved numbers at the Target Center shouldn't catch anyone off guard. He's gone OVER 13.5 points in four of the last six games and four of the last five versus Oklahoma City specifically, which bodes well for how Game 3 will shape out. 

For more on this player prop and others, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here.