The 2025 Western Conference playoff bracket has come down to the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who will soon take the hardwood in a best-of-seven series to determine which team will then compete for a shot at hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Check out Odds Shark's preview for this highly-anticipated conference finals showdown, complete with betting odds, matchup histories, and final predictions.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -375 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +300 |
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook; Accurate as of May 20, 2025
The Timberwolves are back in the conference finals for a second year in a row after disposing of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in the first two rounds, respectively. The Thunder steamrolled through the Association this past season with a 68-14 record and 16-game lead over the rest of the West, and just recently took out the Denver Nuggets with Most Valuable Player candidate Nikola Jokic in a competitive seven-game series.
These two franchises have combined for one Finals appearance in their existence, just as long as you remove the Seattle SuperSonics' lineage from Oklahoma City's history. Oddsmakers currently have this matchup as being fairly one-sided in favor of the Thunder, even though the Timberwolves did for two of their 14 total losses throughout the 2024-25 campaign.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Series Schedule
| Game | Date | Time | Arena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Tue. May 20 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Paycom Center |
| Game 2 | Thur. May 22 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Paycom Center |
| Game 3 | Sat. May 24 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Target Center |
| Game 4 | Mon. May 26 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Target Center |
| Game 5 (if necessary) | Wed. May 28 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Paycom Center |
| Game 6 (if necessary) | Fri. May 30 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Target Center |
| Game 7 (if necessary) | Sun. June 1 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Paycom Center |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Spread/Total Betting History
| Date | Result | ATS Result | Total Points/Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 24, 2025 | 131-128 OT Timberwolves (+11.5) | Timberwolves Cover | 227.5 (OVER) |
| Feb. 23, 2025 | 130-123 Thunder (-8.5) | Timberwolves Cover | 227.5 (OVER) |
| Feb. 13, 2025 | 116-101 Timberwolves (+9.5) | Timberwolves Cover | 229 (UNDER) |
| Dec. 31, 2024 | 113-105 Thunder (-6.5) | Thunder Cover | 217 (OVER) |
Considering how superior Oklahoma City was compared to the rest of the Association, it should come as no surprise that it possessed the strongest overall ATS record at 53-25-4, successfully covering the spread a staggering 68.3-percent of the time when no one else exceeded 60 percent. However, throughout the four games versus Minnesota, the Thunder only managed to cover once and that was the first time they squared off back in late December.
One of the consistent trends on display this postseason has been how prominent UNDERs have arisen in the total points market. Of the 16 qualified teams, only five (none of which are the two in this series) have a record in this department with OVERs connecting better than half of the time. The Timberwolves are at least even at 5-5, while Oklahoma City is just slightly worse at 5-6.
(Related) 2025 NBA Playoff Series Prices
Oklahoma City Thunder Player To watch: Jalen Williams
Jalen Williams' bounce-back performance in Game 7 against the Nuggets on May 18 was just the type of showing he needed after shooting 3-of-16 in a Game 6 road loss at Ball Arena. He finished with 24 points, five rebounds, seven assists, and connected on 10 of his 17 shot attempts in just 32 minutes of action in a 32-point blowout victory. The Thunder were 18-8 during the season when Williams scored at least that many points in a game, and that was the fourth time this postseason that he's contributed 24 or more points, as well.
Oklahoma City would prefer to grind it out in low-scoring affairs and force a team like the Timberwolves to try and penetrate a defense that's only giving up 101.1 points per 100 possessions through 11 games, which is 5.7 fewer points than the rest of the pack. There are going to be spurts, though, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring output will need the boost of a No. 2 or 3 option who can toss in 20 points of their own should Minnesota catch fire, as its only scoring 0.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than the Thunder. The depth is there for a slew of players on OKC to be that guy, but considering how Williams cracked his first All-Star team this year and now knows the pressure which comes with it, he cannot afford to lurk in the background like he did far too often in the Nuggets series.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player to watch: Anthony Edwards
The Infinity Gauntlet is getting quite full with superstar-level talent that Anthony Edwards has helped extinguish in the playoffs. Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry (sort of) and Devin Booker have all met identical fates, and the soon-to-be crowned 2025 MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander could be next on the chopping block if Edwards gets his way.
In order for Minnesota to prevail here, Edwards has to be the clear-cut best player on either roster. That's a tall task considering who's on the other side, mind you, but as we've seen time and time again when taking on the best this sport has to offer, the 23-year-old phenom and three-time All-Star has another gear he can hit. Oklahoma City's defense is obviously no joke, though, and did hold Edwards to 36.4-percent efficiency from the field and 31.6 percent from behind the arc during the season for 22.4 points per contest, which was his third-lowest output against any opponent he faced on at least four occasions. That simply won't cut it this time around with so much at stake.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Series Prediction: Thunder To Win Series In 7 (+410)
No team of the four remaining perhaps has more momentum than the Timberwolves, who only needed 10 total games to reach this point while serving as the betting underdog entering each of the last two rounds. They know they can hang with literally anyone, and the experience gained from advancing to this stage a year ago should serve them well, especially against the youngest roster in basketball in the Thunder who haven't been this far since 2016 when Durant and Russell Westbrook were around.
This series has all the signs of one that will go the distance, and if that's indeed the case, Game 7 emanating from the Paycom Center could be one of several deciding factors. Oklahoma City caught a break in the finale with Denver having Aaron Gordon hobbled by a Grade 2 hamstring strain, and Jokic was clearly running on fumes, but it was still the type of win its young core needed to demonstrate it could pull off under the brightest of lights.
Heartache in the playoffs creates character. Both of these teams fell victim to the Dallas Mavericks in 2024, although the Thunder were sent fishing earlier in the conference semifinals while Minnesota at least stole a game in the conference finals. We're now guaranteed to see a record seventh-straight unique champion, so parity has never been better, but that also means that tomorrow is never promised. As great as these squads have proven themselves to be, there's no guarantee they'll be back here in 2026 and beyond.
This will be a dog fight in the best possible way, but Oklahoma City gets the edge because of its defense, depth, the aforementioned home-court advantage, and the limitless amount of guards and wings it can throw at someone the caliber of Edwards. This series could end much sooner, but out of respect to what the Timberwolves have already accomplished, let's give fans another Game 7 to sink their teeth into prior to the Finals.
2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview: No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers
Nick's Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Series Prediction: OKC to win Series 4-2 (+390), Series Total Games OVER 5.5 (-140)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams vs Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle will be peak cinema. But, at the end of the day, the Thunder boast far more depth from their No.3 through No.9 players than the Timberwolves.
SGA was unflappable in the second-round battle with the Nuggets. The Canadian put on a clinic, averaging 29.7 points, 6.6 assists, and 6.4 rebounds on 53% shooting from the field. Most importantly, the Hamilton, Ontario native was immense in crunchtime, outdueling fellow NBA MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. Importantly, Shai put up on a show on both ends of the floor, proving he could disrupt Jamal Murray and the Nuggets scoring wings, and quarterback his team's offensive attack. If Minnesota can't contain SGA, they're in trouble. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, Shai torched them this season, putting up 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists on 51/55/83% shooting.
Minnesota may be able to play some bully ball when the Thunder look to play small. However, Julius Randle is a super streaky shooter, as are Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Timberwolves will need their role players to play lights out basketball, and protect the rock to push the dominate Thunder into deep waters.
I'm betting on Edwards and company to win two games at home, before Oklahoma City lays the smack down and wins this series in six.
