1 vs 16 Seed History: How Many 16 Seeds Beat A 1 Seed?

March Madness is here and we have our eight teams that will play in the 1 vs 16 games. The No. 1 seeds are: Auburn, Florida, Duke and Houston. While the No. 16 seeds are: Norfolk St, SIU Edwardsville, and then two representatives from the the First Four. 

Throughout college basketball history, seeing the No. 16 seed upset the No. 1 seed is a rare sight -- literally only two times. But, those exceptions occurred in the last decade—making those shocking upsets just a bit more realistic than usual. 

 

How many times has the no. 1 seed been upset by the no. 16 seed?

Expectedly, 1-seeds in March Madness hold a 154-2 all-time record against 16 seeds. Notably, the two upsets happened in the last five seasons. In 2018, UMBC shut down Virginia, 74-54, despite the Cavaliers being heavy 20.5-point favorites. Virginia entered The Dance as a No. 1 seed and ACC champions but the Retrievers effort marked the first upset in 1 vs 16 history.

Then, in more recent memory, FAU stunned Purdue in 2023. Zach Edey, a two-time National Player of the Year, was held to 21-points as the Knights rallied the 63-58 victory.

What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?

The 16-seeds historically have been overmatched, but the inflated lines have kept spread betting a bit more even. The No. 1 seeds are 84-70-2 ATS (54.4%) with 27 of the last 30 lines being set at 20-points or more. No. 16 seeds have covered the spread in five of the last 12 opening round matchups with No. 1 seeds. Though an outright victory mat be far-fetched, an ATS wager on the No.16 isn’t always a bad play.

Close Calls

We aren't typically holding our breath in these 1 vs 16 matchups. Before Virginia’s 2018 debacle, there were about five occasions where the No. 1 seed came nervously close to being upset by a No. 16 seed.

In 2014, No. 16 Albany nearly eliminated No. 1 Florida. The scoreboard was tied in the final 10 minutes before the Gators pulled off the 67-55 victory. 

In 1989, there were two meetings that ended in a one-point decision. No. 16 Princeton missed a final second shot to fall to No. 1 Georgetown, 50-49. Similarly, No. 16 ETSU didn't sink a basket in the dwindling seconds, giving No. 1 Oklahoma the 72-71 dub that same year.

Odds of 16 seed beating 1 seed

Of the 156 1 vs 16 matchups ed for, mathematically, the No. 16 seed has a 1.28% chance of defeating the No. 1 seed outright in March Madness.

 

no. 1 seed vs no. 16 seed History

The top seed has hoisted 26 national titles overall dating back to 1985. Over the past 17 years, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA championship 13 times, including UConn’s 2024 triumph.