Michael Morales is a -770 favorite at Sportsbook vs Gilbert Burns (+550 underdog), who looks to halt a three-fight skid and reassert himself in the welterweight division at a UFC Fight Night event on May 17.
Morales opened at a much more reasonable number, and the odds have exploded in his favor, making this a hard fight to bet.
Morales Vs Burns Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michael Morales | -770 |
| Gilbert Burns | +550 |
Odds as of May 13 at Sportsbook
How To Bet Morales
Morales's path to victory lies in leveraging his youth, reach advantage, and striking prowess. Standing at 6'0" with a 79-inch reach, he can keep Burns at bay and dictate the pace. His 5.42 significant strikes landed per minute and 51.46% accuracy showcase his offensive capabilities. If he maintains distance and avoids the ground game, a knockout or dominant decision is likely.
So how on earth do we bet such an outcome? I like Morales by KO at -150, so hats off to you if you want to lay an outcome bet at such a price. I'd prefer to stretch the value on this fight and go with Morales by KO + OVER 1.5 to get things to +160.
It took Jack Della Maddalena three rounds to wear Burns down and crack him, so that's where I'm headed.
How To Bet Burns
Burns' best chance is to close the distance and utilize his grappling skills. He must neutralize Morales' reach and get into a gritty fight. If he can bring the fight to the mat and control the pace, an upset is possible. Morales owns a 92% takedown defense, so that doesn't bode well for Burns. That said, the elder Brazilian has five rounds to work.
Considering the odds, a small wager on Burns ML (+550) or Burns by submission could yield significant returns if he executes his game plan effectively.
Morales vs Burns Betting Pick
Morales’ reach and striking accuracy make him the obvious pick to dominate Gilbert Burns, and a knockout feels like the most likely outcome. Take Morales by KO + OVER 1.5 rounds (+160) for some solid value. He’s got the patience to break Burns down before delivering the finish.
