Here are four Denver Nuggets for the second time in as many days on March 10, 2025.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
It's certainly not lost on Gilgeous-Alexander how important these back-to-back games against Denver are for his MVP bid, especially after Nikola Jokic had an historic 30-20-20 right before. His 40 points on 15-of-32 shooting, eight rebounds, five assists, and three blocked shots in a 127-103 blowout over the Nuggets on Sunday bumped SGA back up to -600 after dropping to -285, and another victory in convincing fashion with a strong PRA (points + rebounds + assists) could widen the gap even further.
Gilgeous-Alexander is in the midst of a three-game streak of reaching an OVER on a 45.5 PRA, averaging a ridiculous 44 points, five rebounds, and 6.7 assists while converting 54 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range during that span.
He hasn't finished with fewer than 40 points in any of those outings, and repeating that would get him most of the way to yet another OVER in this rematch at the Paycom Center. Seeing Jokic across from him on the hardwood should be all the inspiration needed to throw bettors a bone here.
Scottie Barnes OVER 7.5 Rebounds vs. Wizards (-108 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
At a time when the Toronto Raptors are more focused in playing some of their younger talent heavier minutes while resting key guys with wins and losses not meaning as much at this stage of the 2024-25 campaign, Scottie Barnes' role isn't at risk of dwindling or disappearing entirely. The goal is for him to maintain his All-NBA eligibility, as unlikely as that honor is, because that's the difference between earning $225 million and $270 million over the next five years because of the maximum-value rookie extension he signed over the summer.
The lowly Washington Wizards are at Scotiabank Arena once again after barely eking out a 118-117 over Toronto on Saturday as Jamal Shead's last-second buzzer beater was waived off. Barnes only had two rebounds in 27 minutes to go with his 18 points, which is his lowest total in that department in any game all season.
Jakob Poeltl will be held out for rest in this rematch, and Barnes has grabbed double-digit boards on five of the 14 occasions in which he's suited up without his starting center next to him this season. The 2022 Rookie of the Year also finished with 13 and 12 rebounds, respectively, in the two games prior to playing Washington on March 8, so chalk up those two measly boards on Saturday as simply an off night on the glass.
Austin Reaves OVER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Nets (-108 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7 p.m. ET
Austin Reaves wasn't particularly enamoured by his own performance against the New York Knicks on March 6 in his return from injury when he scored just eight points and missed 11 of his 13 shot attempts, calling it "pretty miserable." He doubled that output two days later with 16 points, albeit in a 10-point loss for the Los Angeles Lakers to the reigning champion Boston Celtics, but most importantly, Reaves connected on four 3-pointers.
That's the number we're looking at here when the Lakers take on the Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center, as Los Angeles will now embark on a multi-week stretch without LeBron James after he hurt his groin against Boston. Reaves will need three or more 3-pointers to get an OVER, and he's accomplished that the three times this season in which he's played sans James.
The 26-year-old guard also had a 38-point showing versus the Nets back on Jan. 17 in which he buried four triples, as well. Now Reaves has only pulled this off once in his last four appearances when healthy, but with he and Luka Doncic as the only real offensive threats remaining, there's not much preventing him from shooting to his heart's content.
Josh Hart OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Kings (-114 at Sportsbook)
Preview: New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings, 10:30 p.m. ET
Just like the James injury could benefit Reaves' statistics, the same rings true for New York Knicks guard Josh Hart as Jalen Brunson will be out of action for two weeks with an ankle injury.
In the first game of Brunson's absence, Hart went ballistic by playing all but two minutes in a 105-95 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on March 7, grabbing a career-best 20 rebounds while also scoring 14 points on 6-of-13 shooting. It was the second-straight game that Hart went OVER 24.5 combined points and rebounds after failing to do so in his four prior showings.
He continues to be the league leader in minutes played per game alongside teammate Mikal Bridges, and Friday was a surefire indicator that he could be ready for even more in the Knicks' depleted backcourt.
NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today
- Precious Achiuwa has gone OVER 0.5 turnovers in 13 of his last 15 games on the road (1.2 turnovers/game average) - (-125 at bet365)
- The Sacramento Kings are 10-2 (83.3%) in their last 12 games at home - (+120 vs NYK at FanDuel)
- The UNDER hit in 17 of the Charlotte Hornets' last 21 games vs. top 10 scoring defenses - UNDER 216.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Davion Mitchell has gone OVER 5.5 assists in 4 of his last 5 games at home (7.4 assists/game average) - (-105 at BetMGM)
- LaMelo Ball has gone OVER 5.5 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games (6.6 rebounds/game average) - (+110 at FanDuel)
Precious achiuwa OVER 0.5 Turnovers vs SAC (-125 at bet365)
As the trend illustrates, Achiuwa has coughed up the ball at least once in 13 of his last 15 contests, averaging 1.2 turnovers during that span. Normally, I'd lean toward betting the OVER 0.5 turnovers on every NBA starter unless they A) were notoriously super cautious or B) didn't handle the ball much. Achiuwa would fall more in the latter category, but clearly he is handling the ball enough in this Knicks offense to make a trend of turning it over.
While Sacramento isn't crazy elite at forcing turnovers (tied for 19th with 7.8 steals per game), the Kings put all kind of heat on Nuggets star center Nikola Jokic on March 6, forcing him to commit six turnovers. The Kings also forced Harrison Barnes to commit a turnover on March 8. On March 2, SAC had a big day, stealing the ball six times from Rockets center Alperen Sengun.
My point here is that the Kings can put a hurting on big men and force them to make mistakes. The OVER 0.5 at -125 looks very sharp given Achiuwa's recent propensity for carelessness with the ball.
- Ethan Diamandas
