Dustin Poirier's final fight is booked. "The Diamond" is a -125 favorite in his fight vs Max Holloway (+100 underdog) at UFC 318 on July 19 at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.
The Poirier vs Holloway odds could shift as we get closer to Fight Week. Also of note, this lightweight brawl will serve as the main event and mark Holloway's defense of the "BMF" belt. Poirier also chose the NOLA location as he hails from Louisiana.
Poirier vs Holloway Odds - UFC 318
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Holloway | +100 |
| Dustin Poirier | -125 |
Odds as of April 29
What happened In their first two fights?
Poirier and Holloway have faced off twice before, and both times, Poirier came out on top. Their first meeting was back in 2012 at UFC 143, where Poirier submitted Holloway with a slick triangle-armbar in the first round, earning him a "Submission of the Night" bonus.
Fast forward to 2019, the two ran it back at UFC 236 for the interim lightweight belt. Poirier dominated over five rounds, winning a unanimous decision with scores of 49-46 across the board. Both fights were memorable and set the stage perfectly for their trilogy at UFC 318.
How To Bet Holloway
Holloway thrives in high-volume striking battles, making him a solid bet if you expect the fight to go the distance. His relentless pace and durability allow him to wear down opponents over time, making him a strong choice for decisions or late-round finishes. Holloway’s cardio and ability to adapt are key, especially if Poirier starts strong. Consider betting on Holloway to win via decision or take the over on total rounds.
Truthfully, the odds are close enough that you can bet Holloway ML as the underdog. Poirier fights with enough pressure that he could still get popped by Holloway's supreme boxing. I'd lean decision, but ML is also a play if you're less risk-averse.
How To Bet Poirier
Poirier ML at -125 is the best bet for this trilogy fight. His power and striking accuracy make him a strong candidate for an early or mid-round finish, and his previous victories over Holloway showcase his ability to control the fight with his boxing and timing. If you expect him to replicate that success, Poirier by KO/TKO is a solid prop bet with great value.
Poirier’s experience in big fights, combined with the emotional edge of fighting at home in his retirement bout, makes him the pick for an outright win at -125. You can go KO for upside.
Poirier vs Holloway Betting Pick - UFC 318
I’m taking Dustin Poirier ML at -125 for the win. I also like the OVER 2.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and likely to engage in a competitive battle that stretches into the later rounds.
